Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, measured to one decimal place. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, reflecting the absence of meaningful price discovery this far ahead. Settlement depends on the Observatory's official "Daily Extract" publication, which typically follows within days of the observation date. Until that data is published, the contract cannot resolve, making this a pure forward bet on both the weather outcome and the timing of official data release.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. The Observatory's records show considerable year-to-year variation; June 2015 saw a peak of 34.6°C whilst June 2009 reached only 27.8°C. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than any expectation of extreme conditions. Early-season heat waves do occur in southern China, though June remains cooler than the July–August peak.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released by the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services in late May and early June 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during that period could shift temperature distributions meaningfully. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 June, but actual resolution will lag until the Observatory publishes its daily extract—typically within 48 hours. USDC liquidity on Polygon will likely remain thin until late May, when near-term forecasts sharpen and traders can price specific temperature bands with greater conviction.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.