US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing a 76% probability that the United States will publicly announce either an extension of its existing ceasefire with Iran or a new diplomatic agreement formalising continued military restraint by the specified deadline. This represents substantial confidence in near-term diplomatic movement, with traders on Polygon backing YES positions in USDC across conditional tokens that would settle if any official announcement meets the resolution criteria—regardless of the agreement's ultimate durability or implementation.

Historical precedent suggests caution around such high probabilities for Iran negotiations. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action achieved multilateral consensus yet unravelled within years following the 2017 US withdrawal. More recently, the November 2022 prisoner exchange and subsequent de-escalation talks produced no formalised ceasefire framework, despite initial optimism. These episodes indicate that even when both parties signal willingness to negotiate, translating that into official announcements with specific timelines remains structurally difficult. The current 76% odds may reflect either genuine diplomatic progress invisible to public reporting or overweighting of recent positive signals from intermediaries.

Traders should monitor statements from the State Department, Iranian foreign ministry, and Omani or Iraqi intermediaries who have historically brokered backchannel talks. Any scheduled UN General Assembly appearances, ministerial meetings, or statements from the White House National Security Council could trigger repricing. Reuters and AP reporting on sanctions relief discussions and prisoner negotiations will signal whether momentum exists. The absence of announced talks or public diplomatic engagement in the weeks preceding the deadline would likely compress YES odds substantially, as markets would face declining time value for an announcement that requires formal government coordination.

Methodology

We track US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.