Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai airport temperature contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, which means the market is effectively assigning no chance to a qualifying high at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station by the settlement cut-off. Because the market resolves from the day’s *highest* recorded temperature on Wunderground, traders are really handicapping the single hottest reading, not the afternoon average or the daytime forecast.

June is normally a warm month at Pudong Airport: WeatherSpark puts average daily highs at roughly 77°F to 83°F through the month, with the hot season beginning around 17 June and summer highs often above 30°C in Shanghai’s airport climate records.[1][3][4] That seasonal backdrop makes a sub-zero implied probability stand out, especially since comparable June forecasts for the airport have still shown temperatures in the high 20s Celsius even with rain and humidity.[2][5] In practical terms, the current price looks like a very strong view that today’s published maximum will stay outside the market’s YES range, rather than a broad call on whether Shanghai is “hot”.

For traders, the main catalysts are the intraday weather pattern at Pudong and any thunderstorm or rain timing that could cap the day’s peak temperature. AccuWeather’s airport forecast has already pointed to afternoon thunderstorms and a much cooler high than the seasonal norm, which is the kind of setup that can shift the contract if cloud cover or precipitation arrives before the day’s maximum is printed.[5][7] The key dependency is the exact Wunderground station reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, since the market settles on that source’s highest temperature for the day, with the 12:00 UTC window governing resolution timing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.