Colombia Presidential Election

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Market context

Colombia will hold a presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential second round on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The Polymarket contract currently prices all listed candidates at 0%, reflecting either incomplete candidate registration data on-chain or early-stage liquidity before major contenders formally declare. Settlement depends on credible reporting consensus by year-end 2026; if results remain ambiguous, the market resolves to "Other."

Colombia's electoral history offers limited precedent for predicting 2026 outcomes. The 2022 election saw Gustavo Petro win with 50.4% in the first round, avoiding a runoff despite fragmented opposition. The 2018 race required a second round between Iván Duque and Sergio Fajardo, with Duque securing 54% of the runoff vote. These contests demonstrate that Colombian voters often consolidate around centre-right or left-wing poles, though regional and anti-establishment sentiment can shift margins significantly. Petro's current approval ratings and legislative coalition strength will shape whether 2026 produces a clear first-round winner or forces a competitive second ballot.

Key catalysts include formal candidate registration deadlines (typically 90 days before the election), major party primary results, and economic data on inflation and unemployment—both critical voter concerns. Petro's legislative agenda and any constitutional reforms will influence whether his coalition holds or fractures. International attention to Colombia's security situation and US relations may also affect candidate positioning. Traders should monitor Colombian media outlets and the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil for official timelines and candidate announcements as the election approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.