Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either extreme uncertainty or a technical pricing anomaly typical of low-liquidity weather contracts on Polymarket. Traders holding conditional tokens representing specific temperature ranges face settlement in USDC on Polygon once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 June.

Early-summer temperatures in Shanghai cluster reliably between 28–34°C, with June typically marking the transition into the monsoon season. Historical data from the past five years shows that 13 June readings have ranged from 26°C to 32°C, with most years settling in the 29–31°C band. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests either insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful market curve or traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital to conditional token positions.

The key variable for June 2026 will be whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate early that month or whether monsoon moisture arrives ahead of schedule. China's meteorological service typically issues 10-day forecasts by early June, and traders should monitor those releases for signals about atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions persisting into mid-2026 could shift baseline temperatures by 1–2°C either direction, making seasonal climate outlooks from the China Meteorological Administration worth tracking as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.