Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 28 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date—a constraint that eliminates any meaningful price discovery for an event six months forward. Traders on Polygon are holding conditional tokens denominated in USDC, with resolution dependent on a single data point from a specific weather station rather than city-wide readings.

May temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 22–28°C as daily highs, though extremes have reached 31°C during early heat waves. The 0% probability across all brackets suggests the market may be mispriced relative to seasonal norms, or reflects low liquidity and sparse trading activity rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Comparable May weather events show Seoul experiences variable conditions driven by early monsoon patterns and occasional warm air masses from the south, making mid-to-high 20s the statistical centre of gravity.

The key dependency for traders is Wunderground's data availability and methodology on the settlement date itself. No scheduled weather announcements or forecasting milestones occur between now and late May that would materially shift expectations. Traders should verify the Incheon station's historical data consistency and confirm Wunderground's temperature-rounding conventions before committing capital, as resolution hinges entirely on that platform's recorded figure rather than competing weather services.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.