Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

The market is pricing a 1% probability that Seoul's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will exceed 34°C, as measured at Incheon International Airport's weather station. This represents an extremely tight range at the upper end of Seoul's typical early-summer distribution. On Polymarket, traders are currently holding YES positions (conditional tokens backed by USDC on Polygon) at odds that reflect deep scepticism about such heat arriving that specific day.

Historically, Seoul's June temperatures cluster around 23–28°C, with daily highs exceeding 30°C occurring in roughly one-third of June days across the past two decades. Days reaching 34°C or above in June are rare but not unprecedented; the city has recorded such temperatures in early June during heat waves driven by Tibetan high-pressure systems. The 1% pricing suggests the crowd views this outcome as a tail event—plausible under extreme atmospheric conditions but unlikely given typical seasonal patterns for that week.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Asian summer monsoon onset timing and any forecasts for anomalous high-pressure ridging over the Korean peninsula in early June 2026. South Korea's Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks roughly six weeks in advance, which will provide the first institutional guidance on whether June 2026 deviates from climatological norms. Real-time weather models become actionable only in the final week before settlement, at which point conditional token prices typically adjust sharply if forecasters signal an unexpected heat event.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.