Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Market context

The Polymarket contract pricing this at 0% YES reflects traders' current assessment that Seoul's highest temperature on 12 June 2026 will fall below the threshold range being tested. Settlement hinges on the daily maximum recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, with Wunderground's historical data serving as the authoritative source. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before resolution.

Seoul's June climate sits firmly in early summer, with historical highs typically ranging between 26°C and 30°C during this period. The 0% probability suggests the market is pricing in either an unusually cool day or that the threshold being tested lies well above typical June maximums for the region. Comparable years show June 12 temperatures have varied considerably—recent decades recorded highs from 23°C to 31°C on this specific date, indicating meaningful volatility exists despite the seasonal pattern.

Traders monitoring this contract should track South Korean meteorological forecasts released in the days preceding 12 June, particularly alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual weather systems. Any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early June could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems moving into the Korean peninsula would push readings upward. Real-time adjustments typically occur as the settlement date approaches and forecast confidence improves, potentially shifting the current extreme pricing if weather models signal material deviations from seasonal norms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.