Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **30 June 2026** at the LaGuardia Airport Station rather than the weather in the abstract, with the contract settled in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens once Wunderground publishes the day’s final high. The crowd is currently marking **0% YES**, but the live book structure still matters: traders are effectively judging where the station’s peak Fahrenheit reading will land within the market’s discrete bands, and the market cannot resolve until the first reading for the next day appears on the source. [1]

The comparison point is how daily NYC temperature markets usually settle around the most probable band rather than an extreme tail. For 21 June specifically, Polymarket’s own market page has pointed to highs near **79–84°F**, with **82–83°F** listed as the frontrunner at **59%** and **80–81°F** next at **23%**. That kind of pricing implies the market is not treating a cool outcome as impossible, but it is anchoring around a warm early-summer day consistent with June climatology and recent model output. [1][5][6]

The key catalysts are standard weather inputs rather than scheduled corporate events: updated model runs, any shift in the forecasted cloud cover or wind, and whether heat builds enough for LaGuardia to print a late-afternoon peak above the current band. A recent weather update described intense afternoon heat, humid conditions, and mostly sunny skies over New York City, all of which would support a stronger maximum if they verified on the day. For a Polymarket user, the practical point is that secondary market price in USDC can move before the official Wunderground reading, but final settlement depends entirely on the station’s published maximum on the resolution source. [2][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.