Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 100% YES across the board, reflecting the certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded that day—a mathematical inevitability rather than a forecast about weather conditions. Traders are essentially backing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon, where the settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date.

New York's June temperatures typically range between 70°F and 85°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The 2012 heatwave saw LaGuardia reach 94°F in early June, whilst cooler Junes have peaked in the mid-70s. The 100% crowd probability reflects the mechanical certainty of resolution rather than any consensus about whether June 2026 will be unusually warm or cool. Historical volatility in early-summer temperatures means the actual settlement range remains genuinely uncertain, despite the current pricing.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models and any El Niño or La Niña patterns emerging in early 2026, as these influence North Atlantic weather systems affecting the Northeast. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks by May, which could shift market expectations if they signal anomalous conditions. Since LaGuardia's readings are automatically recorded and publicly archived, settlement mechanics carry minimal dispute risk—the only variable is which temperature band the day ultimately produces.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.