Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0%, reflecting either incomplete liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will settle. The market uses Wunderground's historical data feed as its sole resolution source, capturing the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit across all times on that date. Traders settling this contract will receive conditional tokens on Polygon, redeemable in USDC once the outcome is confirmed and the market closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

New York's June weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates June highs at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 2012 record for early June saw temperatures spike to 94°F, whilst cooler Junes have peaked in the upper 70s. Current climate normals suggest mid-80s as the modal outcome, yet the 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market lacks sufficient trader participation to establish meaningful price discovery.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as June 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for Atlantic high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns that could drive temperatures above seasonal norms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook, typically released monthly, will provide guidance on broader temperature trends for early summer in the Northeast. Real-time forecast updates in the week preceding settlement will sharpen probability estimates, though short-range weather forecasting carries inherent uncertainty beyond five days.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.