Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 102°F earlier this week, shattering daily high records and pushing midnight temperatures to 94°F. This extreme baseline suggests the market’s current 0% probability for the lowest temperature range is likely mispriced relative to the active atmospheric conditions, as the heat has lingered well into the night.

Historical precedents from July 2013 and recent 2026 data show LaGuardia frequently exceeding 90°F during sustained heat events, framing the current pricing as an outlier against established climatic patterns. The frontrunner outcome on Polymarket is 80–81°F at 29%, closely trailed by 84–85°F at 28%, indicating traders are betting on a slight cooldown from the 102°F peak rather than a continuation of record-breaking highs.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Central Park forecast and the daily Wunderground updates for KLGA, as these dictate the final resolution on the Polygon chain. Recent reporting from FOX Weather confirms the record-setting heat is persistent, making the thin $5,602 volume on this contract a key risk factor for liquidity during the settlement window. USDC positions remain locked in conditional tokens until the 2026-07-05T12:00:00Z deadline, where the highest recorded temperature will determine the payout.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.