Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure on that same day at 12:00 UTC—a constraint that leaves traders pricing conditional tokens on Polygon with genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Wunderground's historical data for the airport station serves as the sole arbiter, making data availability and measurement consistency the practical floor for any position.

Beijing's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical highs typically ranging from 28°C to 34°C depending on weather patterns. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests either extreme illiquidity in this particular contract or that traders are awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts before committing USDC to conditional token positions. Comparable June days at the airport station show considerable variance; the city experiences occasional heat waves pushing toward 36–38°C, whilst cooler systems can suppress highs to the mid-20s. This historical spread frames why settlement hinges entirely on real-time conditions rather than seasonal averages.

The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by early June, which would provide the first concrete catalyst for traders to reassess probabilities. Subtropical pressure systems and monsoon moisture patterns in that period directly influence whether Beijing experiences typical seasonal warmth or anomalous conditions. Any significant weather announcements from official Chinese sources between now and mid-June will likely trigger the first meaningful trading activity in this contract.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.