Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

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Market context

Polymarket traders are pricing an 18% chance that a U.S.–Iran bilateral agreement will be signed and executed by 31 July 2026. The contract requires a written accord to which both nations are parties, signed by the listed individual in official capacity—though neither country's representatives need personally affix their signatures for settlement. This is a narrow gate: the agreement must be formal, documented, and executed within the window, not merely announced or negotiated.

Historical precedent suggests such deals move slowly through diplomatic channels. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took roughly two years of sustained multilateral negotiation before signature. The Trump administration withdrew from that agreement in 2018, and subsequent attempts at renegotiation have stalled repeatedly. Current U.S.–Iran relations remain adversarial, with sanctions architecture intact and no active multilateral framework comparable to the JCPOA's structure. The 18% probability reflects the structural difficulty of bilateral agreement-making between these parties rather than imminent diplomatic momentum.

Traders monitoring this contract should track several dependencies: shifts in U.S. domestic political positioning toward Iran policy, any formal diplomatic channel reopenings, and statements from Iranian leadership regarding negotiation readiness. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets has documented occasional backchannel discussions, but no formal negotiating framework has been publicly established. The settlement window closes in mid-2026, meaning any qualifying agreement would need to move from proposal to signature within roughly 18 months—a compressed timeline given historical precedent and current geopolitical friction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.