Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the presidency before July 31, 2026, is currently priced at just 1% on Polymarket, reflecting the crowd’s near-certainty that he will remain in office through the settlement window. This contract, settled on-chain via USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, updates in real-time as traders execute trades, offering a continuously shifting signal of market expectations rather than a static abstract forecast [1].

Historically, presidential exits before the end of a term have been rare and typically driven by scandal, health crises, or legal removal, with no comparable precedent in the modern era for a voluntary resignation mid-term without catastrophic pressure. The closest analogue is Richard Nixon’s 1974 resignation amid the Watergate scandal, yet even that occurred after years of mounting legal and political erosion, not within the first year of a second term. Current turnover data in the Trump administration shows high adviser churn but no structural collapse that would force an early exit [6].

Traders should monitor upcoming midterm election schedules, any formal announcements regarding the 25th Amendment, and statements from key political figures about Trump’s capacity or willingness to continue. Democratic strategist James Carville recently predicted Trump may exit by Easter 2027, citing boredom and declining alertness, though this timeline falls outside the current market’s settlement window [3]. Any sudden legal developments or health-related disclosures before July 31 would be the primary catalysts to watch for a shift in the 1% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.