Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices this conditional token at **0% YES** today, which means the contract on USDC settled through Polygon is trading as if Jan-Lennard Struff is effectively not expected to advance against Martin Landaluce. The market resolves on the actual match outcome, but if the match is not played, ends level, or slips more than seven days beyond the scheduled date without a winner, it falls back to 50-50 under the event rules.

The comparison case for traders is straightforward: this is a first-round grass-court meeting with widely published previews leaning towards Landaluce, including Tennis Tonic’s initial odds that made the Spaniard the pick at 1.615 versus 2.3 for Struff[2]. Other pre-match coverage also frames the contest as an opening-round match on Mallorca’s centre court, with Struff listed around world No. 77 and Landaluce around No. 55 in one preview, although rankings can differ slightly by source and timing[1][4][7]. That kind of pre-match tilt can keep a contract pinned near zero even before play starts, especially when the favourite is already priced more strongly in external markets.

The main catalysts are operational rather than abstract: whether the fixture is confirmed, moved, or completed, and whether there is any interruption that pushes it outside the seven-day settlement window. Live scoreboards and tournament listings showed the match scheduled for 13:00 UTC on 22 June at Centre Court in Mallorca, but if the event is postponed, abandoned, or rescheduled, the resolution mechanics matter more than pre-match opinion[6][7][9]. For Polymarket users, the practical watchpoints are official draw updates, start-time changes, and any indication that the match will not reach a completed result within the market’s settlement rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.