Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil transit passing through its 21-nautical-mile width. Polymarket currently prices the YES token at 4%, reflecting a low but non-zero expectation that a specific country's warships will transit the strait between now and end-June 2026. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are pricing in either a narrow definition of which nation qualifies, or genuine scepticism about whether military vessels will formally transit during this 18-month window.

Historical precedent suggests warship transits occur regularly but unevenly. The United States Navy has conducted freedom-of-navigation operations through the strait for decades; European navies including British and French vessels have transited in recent years, particularly during periods of heightened Iran tensions. The 2019–2020 period saw multiple European and Gulf state naval deployments. However, formal confirmation of transit—requiring credible government or media reporting—differs from the operational reality. Many transits occur without immediate public acknowledgement, which may explain why the market prices YES so conservatively despite the strait's heavy military traffic.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, and any scheduled European naval operations in the Gulf region. Recent tensions between Iran and Israel, alongside ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping, could prompt additional naval deployments. The market's low probability may reflect uncertainty about whether a given transit will meet the resolution criteria's evidentiary threshold—specifically, whether "broad consensus of credible reporting" will materialise for any single nation's passage.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.