UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this featherweight prelim at **0% YES** on-chain in USDC on Polygon, so the contract is effectively saying the market sees no live chance of a Collins win at present. On the UFC side, the bout is scheduled for UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas, with official records listing Shane Collins at 7-0 and Otari Tanzilovi at 10-1, both at 145 lbs and both making their UFC debut here[2][7].

That 0% print sits well below the kind of pre-fight pricing seen in comparable UFC debut spots, where books had Collins as a clear favourite at around -225 and Tanzilovi at +185[1]. In market terms, a zero bid can reflect either thin liquidity, a stale order book, or traders leaning hard towards the underdog not just losing but also towards uncertainty over whether the bout completes cleanly. For Polymarket users, the key point is that the contract settles only on the official UFC result, with a draw, no contest, cancellation, or a postponement beyond 4 July 2026 pushing it to 50-50 under the rules.

The main catalysts are straightforward: weigh-in confirmation, any late card reshuffles, and the official result once the prelim finishes. Tapology still lists the fight for 20 June at 5:00 pm ET, while sportsbook listings also treat it as an active bout, which is the practical signal traders watch for close to settlement[2][4]. On a conditional-tokens market like this, the final price can move sharply if UFC changes the card, an injury is reported, or the bout order slips, because those mechanics directly affect whether the contract resolves to one fighter, 50-50, or remains open until the official outcome is posted.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.