Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 70% |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 20% |
| Dylan Cease | 12% |
| Paul Skenes | 7% |
| Cam Schlittler | 2% |
| Garrett Crochet | 1% |
| Tarik Skubal | 1% |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1% |
| Hunter Brown | 1% |
| Sonny Gray | 1% |
| Bryan Woo | 1% |
| Shota Imanaga | 1% |
| Reid Detmers | 1% |
| Nolan McLean | 1% |
| Max Fried | 1% |
| Kevin Gausman | 1% |
| Logan Webb | 0% |
| Freddy Peralta | 0% |
| Carlos Rodón | 0% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0% |
| Zack Wheeler | 0% |
| Joe Ryan | 0% |
| Taj Bradley | 0% |
| José Soriano | 0% |
| Logan Gilbert | 0% |
| Emerson Hancock | 0% |
| Hunter Greene | 0% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0% |
| Pitcher A | 0% |
| Pitcher B | 0% |
| Pitcher C | 0% |
| Pitcher D | 0% |
| Pitcher E | 0% |
| Pitcher F | 0% |
| Pitcher G | 0% |
| Pitcher H | 0% |
| Pitcher I | 0% |
| Pitcher J | 0% |
| Pitcher K | 0% |
| Pitcher L | 0% |
| Pitcher M | 0% |
| Pitcher N | 0% |
| Pitcher O | 0% |
| Pitcher P | 0% |
| Pitcher Q | 0% |
| Pitcher R | 0% |
| Pitcher S | 0% |
| Pitcher T | 0% |
| Pitcher U | 0% |
| Pitcher V | 0% |
| Pitcher W | 0% |
| Pitcher X | 0% |
| Pitcher Y | 0% |
| Pitcher Z | 0% |
| Pitcher AA | 0% |
| Pitcher AB | 0% |
| Pitcher AC | 0% |
| Pitcher AD | 0% |
| Pitcher AE | 0% |
| Pitcher AF | 0% |
| Pitcher AG | 0% |
| Pitcher AH | 0% |
| Pitcher AI | 0% |
| Pitcher AJ | 0% |
| Pitcher AK | 0% |
| Pitcher AL | 0% |
| Pitcher AM | 0% |
| Pitcher AN | 0% |
| Pitcher AO | 0% |
| Pitcher AP | 0% |
| Pitcher AQ | 0% |
| Pitcher AR | 0% |
| Pitcher AS | 0% |
| Pitcher AT | 0% |
| Pitcher AU | 0% |
| Pitcher AV | 0% |
| Pitcher AW | 0% |
| Pitcher AX | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher prediction market currently prices this outcome at 70% YES. This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve …
Methodology
We track MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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