UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Kevin Borjas vs Andre Lima at **100% YES** for the Lima side, which on-chain means almost all USDC liquidity in this conditional token market is pointing to a Lima win rather than a live contest. With settlement tied to official UFC result data, the contract should resolve to the named winner if the bout is completed and scored, or to **50-50** if it is ruled a draw, technical draw, no contest, or otherwise not officially decided by the UFC.

That 100% level is consistent with how the wider market has treated Lima throughout camp: bookmakers listed him as a heavy favourite at about **-650**, while Borjas was a sizeable underdog at **+475** in pre-fight pricing.[1] Lima entered undefeated, and preview coverage expected him to win by stoppage, so the market has largely reflected a one-sided fight tree rather than a balanced flyweight matchup.[2] For Polymarket users, the main point is that a near-certain price does not remove settlement risk entirely; it simply says traders think an official Lima win is overwhelmingly likely given the current information.

The key catalyst is the UFC’s own official result, because this market settles only on that source and the fight is scheduled for the main card in Las Vegas.[7] Traders should watch for any late bout changes, weigh-in issues, medical withdrawals, card reshuffles, or a delayed start, since the market only flips to 50-50 if the fight is cancelled, postponed beyond the stated window, or ends in a non-decision. Competing market venues are already showing Lima around the mid-80s on similar contracts, which suggests Polymarket’s 100% reading is much more extreme than other retail books and prediction venues.[3][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.