UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Allan Nascimento versus Mitch Raposo is priced at **0% YES** on Polymarket, so the contract is effectively saying the market assigns no meaningful chance to Nascimento winning under current information. Because settlement is tied to the UFC’s official result, holders are really trading the fight outcome on a conditional-token contract settled in USDC on Polygon, not the narrative around either fighter’s form.[5][8]

For context, this is a flyweight prelim with a fairly standard two-way structure: Nascimento is the better-established grappler on paper, while Raposo has shown enough activity and takedown volume to keep the matchup competitive in pre-fight handicapping.[3][9] UFC’s own preview materials confirm Raposo was scheduled for this bout at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Horiguchi on 20 June 2026, and UFC also previously updated the card after Raposo’s illness-affected booking change, which is a reminder that these markets can move on availability rather than pure matchup analysis.[5][8]

The main catalysts now are simple: weigh-in and final card confirmations, any late injury or illness news, and the official UFC result once the prelim concludes. If the bout is altered, cancelled, ruled no contest, or pushed beyond 4 July 2026, this market resolves 50-50 rather than to either fighter.[8] With the current price already at zero, a trader would mainly be watching for confirmation that the fight actually happens as scheduled and for any last-minute information from UFC sources that could change the settlement path.[5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.