Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 64% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 31% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 29% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 22% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 88% chance of brazil vs. norway - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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