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Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Erling Haaland: 1+ shots 88% Erling Haaland: 2+ shots 81% Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots 80% Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots 79% Volume: $285K Liquidity: $1.7M Closes: 5 Jul 2026
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Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
88% 12% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
88% 12% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots88%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots81%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots80%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots79%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots76%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots74%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots66%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots66%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots64%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target48%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target48%
Raphinha: 1+ shots on target48%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target48%
Alisson: 2+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves48%
Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves48%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots45%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target45%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals44%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots43%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots42%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals41%
Igor Thiago: 1+ shots40%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target40%
Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists40%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists38%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots37%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists37%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target35%
Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists35%
Alisson: 4+ saves34%
Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves34%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists34%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target33%
Raphinha: 2+ shots on target33%
Alisson: 3+ saves33%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists33%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists33%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists33%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target32%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target32%
Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves32%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists32%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists32%
Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists32%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals31%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots31%
Alisson: 5+ saves31%
Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists31%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists31%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists31%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots30%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists30%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists30%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target29%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots28%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target28%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target28%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target28%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target28%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target28%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target28%
Raphinha: 3+ shots on target28%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target28%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target28%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists28%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists28%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists28%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target27%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target27%
Raphinha: 4+ shots on target27%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists27%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots26%
Raphinha: 2+ shots26%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists26%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target25%
Igor Thiago: 2+ shots24%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists24%
Raphinha: 1+ shots23%
Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists23%
Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target22%
Igor Thiago: 4+ shots21%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target21%
Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots20%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists20%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots19%
Erling Haaland: 5+ shots18%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists18%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals17%
Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots15%
Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots14%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots14%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target14%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals13%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals13%
Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots13%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals12%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists12%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists12%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target12%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target12%
Igor Thiago: 3+ shots11%
Raphinha: 3+ shots11%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists11%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists11%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals10%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots9%
Raphinha: 1+ goals8%
Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots8%
Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots7%
Igor Thiago: 5+ shots7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots7%
Raphinha: 4+ shots7%
Raphinha: 1+ assists7%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals6%
Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots6%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals5%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals3%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals3%
Raphinha: 5+ shots3%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists3%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists3%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals2%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals2%
Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots2%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists2%
Erling Haaland: 2+ assists2%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists2%
Raphinha: 2+ assists2%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals1%
Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 2+ goals1%
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals1%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals1%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals1%
Raphinha: 2+ goals1%
Raphinha: 3+ goals1%

Market context

Market consensus: 88% chance of brazil vs. norway - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We track Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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