Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket's conditional tokens currently price this contract at 2% implied probability, meaning traders are assigning minimal likelihood that the named player moves before the July 2026 deadline. The USDC-denominated YES and NO tokens on Polygon reflect a market consensus that either the player remains with their current franchise or any trade occurs after the settlement window closes. This pricing sits well below historical baseline rates for mid-tier roster movement, suggesting either strong confidence in roster stability or limited conviction among active traders on this particular contract.

NFL trades involving established roster players occur at measurable frequency during off-season windows and mid-season adjustments. Between 2019 and 2024, roughly 15–25 notable player trades occurred annually across the league, though the distribution skews heavily toward deadline periods in March and October. Comparable Polymarket contracts tracking specific players have historically resolved YES at rates between 8–18% depending on the player's age, contract status, and team circumstances. A 2% probability suggests either an exceptionally stable situation or minimal trading precedent for this particular athlete.

Traders monitoring this contract should track several concrete catalysts: official team injury reports and salary cap announcements (typically released in February and March), coaching staff changes that might alter roster priorities, and any public statements from team management regarding long-term plans. The NFL's trade deadline falls in late October 2025, representing the primary window where mid-season moves materialise. Contract restructuring announcements and draft capital allocation decisions by the player's franchise will signal whether management views them as core to future plans or potential trade assets.

Methodology

We track Which NFL players will be traded? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.