US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?** at **1% YES**, which is consistent with a market that has already moved through the initial diplomatic headline but still needs a qualifying written instrument to be mutually signed or formally adopted before the settlement deadline. On Polymarket, that means USDC is locked on Polygon and the contract settles via conditional tokens, so traders are really betting on whether the paperwork meets the exact rules in the market description rather than on general rhetoric about talks.

The key historical reference is the June 2026 framework itself: AP reported that the United States and Iran finalised an initial pact on 17 June, and Reuters said the draft included a 60-day timetable for a final agreement, sanctions waivers, and nuclear limits[1][4]. That puts the market in a familiar pattern for Iran diplomacy, where a public framework can exist well before a binding final text, and where implementation details on enrichment, inspections, sanctions relief, and frozen assets decide whether a deal counts for settlement[3][4]. The current 1% suggests traders see the opening statement as important but still far from a qualifying final instrument.

For catalysts, watch whether the Geneva signing or follow-up technical sessions actually produce a signed memorandum, annex, or adopted text before 31 August, and whether either side publicly confirms that the nuclear file, sanctions relief, and inspection access have been locked in[3][4]. Reuters also reported that no new sanctions would be imposed until a final agreement is reached, while other coverage has pointed to tensions around Lebanon and regional security as possible blockers to the timetable[4][2][8]. Any cancellation, postponement, or shift from “framework” language to a formal signed instrument would matter more here than the broader diplomatic mood.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.