Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Execration against Mentality Monster at about **10% YES**, which implies the contract is still being treated as a steep underdog position rather than a coin-flip. On Polymarket’s usual setup, this is a **USDC** market on **Polygon** that resolves through conditional tokens, so the payout turns entirely on the official match result rather than on series narrative or map-by-map scoreline.

That 10% level sits well below the wider Dota betting consensus in the available market data. Live match listings and odds pages show Execration as the clear favourite, with prices around 1.05-1.06 for an Execration win and series projections most often clustering around a 2-0 or 2-1 victory[1][4]. In practical terms, the on-chain price looks much more conservative than the off-chain pricing, which is usually a sign that traders are discounting either match uncertainty, schedule noise, or the thin-liquidity effect common in niche qualifier markets.

For traders, the main catalyst is not just the scoreboard but whether the lower-bracket quarter-final is played cleanly and on time. Kalshi’s comparable listing says the match was originally scheduled for 21 June 2026 at 10:00 PM EDT and remains open until 5 July if needed, while Bo3 and GosuGamers list the fixture as a live TI Southeast Asia closed qualifier playoff match on 22 June[2][5]. Under the market rules here, a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner would push settlement to **50-50**, so any schedule change, bracket reshuffle, or broadcast confirmation can matter as much as pre-match team strength.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.