Bitcoin price on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 28 May 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for YES, suggesting traders are pricing in either extreme uncertainty about settlement mechanics or confidence that the event will not resolve affirmatively—a counterintuitive signal given that Bitcoin will almost certainly have a verifiable price at that moment. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token pair on Polygon, with positions settled in USDC against the Binance data feed. The 0% reading indicates either liquidity constraints or a technical issue with how the market was initialised.

Historical Bitcoin price brackets on similar intraday markets have typically seen the widest spreads cluster around ±5–8% from the settlement date's opening price, reflecting genuine volatility rather than systematic mispricing. Previous Polymarket Bitcoin contracts that resolved to specific price ranges showed that traders underestimated tail-risk moves in roughly 15–20% of cases, particularly during periods of macroeconomic data releases or regulatory announcements. The May 2026 window falls outside any known scheduled Federal Reserve decision or major Bitcoin halving event, reducing obvious catalyst risk relative to comparable historical periods.

Traders monitoring this contract should track developments in spot Bitcoin trading volume on Binance itself, as thin liquidity at noon ET could produce outsized candle closes. Broader macro catalysts—inflation data, geopolitical events, or shifts in institutional custody flows—will drive directional bias in the weeks leading to settlement. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single 1-minute candle makes this contract sensitive to flash volatility and order-book depth at precisely 17:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.