Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket's conditional token pair on Polygon is pricing the return of Strait of Hormuz traffic to pre-disruption levels at 2% YES, with traders demanding roughly 50:1 odds against a 7-day moving average of 60+ daily transit calls materialising by end-May 2026. The spread reflects deep scepticism about normalisation within the settlement window, despite the strait's historical role as a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade.

The 60-call threshold represents a significant recovery from current depressed levels. Before regional tensions escalated in late 2024, the Strait typically processed 80–100 daily transits across all vessel classes tracked by IMF Portwatch. The 2% pricing suggests traders view the probability of reaching even 75% of historical throughput as remote. Comparable disruptions—the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2019–2020 tanker attacks—took 18–24 months for full normalisation, though those events involved different geopolitical actors and risk profiles than the current Houthi-led shipping campaign.

Key catalysts centre on ceasefire negotiations in Yemen and shifts in regional military posture. Any announcement of a durable truce between Houthi forces and coalition partners would likely trigger immediate repricing upwards. Conversely, escalation in attacks on commercial vessels or widening of the conflict would reinforce the low probability. Traders should monitor statements from the UN, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, alongside weekly IMF Portwatch data releases, which provide the sole settlement mechanism. The market's extreme skew suggests most capital expects either continued disruption or only gradual recovery well beyond May 2026.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.