When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0%** for a GPT-5.6 release by the market’s settlement window, even though the contract pays out in USDC via Polygon conditional tokens if OpenAI makes a qualifying public release before 28 June 2026. For a hands-on trader, that means the current tape is effectively saying there is no credible path left to settlement in time, so any move now depends on a fresh official launch rather than gradual drift in expectations.

The best historical guide is OpenAI’s own recent cadence. GPT-5.5 was rolled out in April 2026, and its release notes show OpenAI has been updating models and access tiers in a staged way, including ChatGPT and API availability across Plus, Pro, Business and Enterprise plans.[4][7] That matters because prediction markets often react less to the model name itself than to whether OpenAI follows the familiar pattern of announcement, safety materials, and access rollout. The current zero price also suggests traders are assigning little value to the rumoured late-June cadence discussed in recent coverage of GPT-5.6, despite claims that OpenAI staff have described it as a “meaningful improvement”.[1][6]

The main catalysts to watch are an official OpenAI post, a system card, API release notes, and any model-picker or Codex routing change that makes a GPT-5.6-branded variant publicly available.[1][2][7] On-chain, the market will only resolve on the calendar date of a genuine public release, so a backend leak or internal testing name would not be enough on its own. Recent reporting also points to GPT-5.6 being tied to a broader ChatGPT overhaul and efficiency/safety work, which could still affect timing if OpenAI decides to bundle the launch with other product changes.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.