Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, yet the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES condition. On Polymarket, this contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the market’s near-total dismissal of the event occurring. The pricing suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to the prevailing weather patterns expected for late June in New Zealand.

Historically, June in Wellington sees average daily highs dropping from 57°F to 54°F, with overcast skies dominating about 42% of the month[4]. Recent data from MetService confirms that Wellington has already surpassed its record June maximum, with temperatures exceeding 19°C earlier in the month[5]. However, current BBC Weather forecasts for 25 June indicate strong winds, light rain, and a high of only 12°C, reinforcing the market’s scepticism[2]. These comparable cases frame the 0% probability as a rational assessment of seasonal norms rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in MetService’s forecasts regarding wind or precipitation[3]. The settlement window ends on 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, so on-chain mechanics will lock positions once the temperature is confirmed. Any announcement of unseasonal warmth or a breakdown in the rain pattern could alter the probability, though current schedules suggest stable, cool conditions[2]. The dependency on precise, timestamped data from Wunderground ensures the outcome remains tied to verified observations rather than speculation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.