Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure date coinciding with the actual event date—a common feature when markets resolve same-day. Traders on Polygon are holding conditional tokens denominated in USDC, with payouts determined by which temperature bracket Wunderground's historical data confirms once the day concludes.

Los Angeles' late-May temperatures typically cluster between 70–80°F, with historical highs occasionally breaching 85°F. The National Weather Service records for LAX show May averages around 72°F, though the month has seen outlier days reaching into the low 90s during Santa Ana wind events or heat domes. Understanding the range distribution requires examining prior May 26th records specifically; whilst comprehensive historical comparison is limited, the city's seasonal pattern suggests most probability mass should concentrate in the 75–85°F bands rather than extreme heat scenarios.

The National Weather Service's extended forecast becomes actionable roughly 10–14 days before the event, with meaningful updates arriving 5–7 days prior. Upper-level atmospheric patterns, potential marine layer persistence, and any developing heat systems will be the primary drivers traders should monitor through late May. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues outlooks for anomalous temperatures; any advisory for Southern California heat would shift market expectations toward higher ranges. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's archived data pull from KLAX, making the forecast source itself the critical dependency rather than competing meteorological models.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.