Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Today, Polymarket prices the "YES" outcome for any temperature above 34°C at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that such extreme heat is unlikely on this specific date. The contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens lock liquidity until the settlement window closes on 27 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, with resolution dependent solely on the official "Absolute Daily Max" published in the Observatory’s Daily Extract.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability against recent extremes. Hong Kong recorded its hottest day of the year so far at 34.6°C in late May 2026, yet June 27 in 2024 saw a peak of 34.4°C, suggesting high variability[5][10]. However, the seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures overall, with the warmest average June day historically occurring around 20 June at 29.7°C, not the 27th[2][8]. This divergence between seasonal warmth and the specific date’s typical range explains why traders are pricing out the 34°C+ threshold despite the broader heat trend.

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily release schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the "Daily Extract" is finalized. A key catalyst is the upcoming ENSO status update, which influences climate model forecasts for the region and could shift temperature expectations if anomalies emerge[2]. Recent news from the South China Morning Post confirms that hail warnings accompanied the 34.6°C record, indicating that extreme heat events often carry volatile weather signatures traders should watch for in the coming days[5]. The dependency on finalized official data means no on-chain price movement will occur until the Observatory publishes the confirmed figure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.