Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, which this market will resolve against once official data is published. Polymarket currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES, reflecting either sparse liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which range will settle. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution itself depends on the Observatory publishing its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset—a process that typically occurs within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early monsoon season. Historical data shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with occasional excursions toward 34°C during heat waves. The 2015 heatwave pushed temperatures to 36.1°C in early June, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. Current market pricing at 0% across all bands suggests either no meaningful trading activity or that traders expect temperatures to fall within ranges not yet offered as discrete options on the Polygon-based contract.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts, which typically update in late May and account for monsoon onset patterns and any anomalous pressure systems. The El Niño/La Niña status in early 2026 will influence regional circulation patterns. Once the contract goes live with defined temperature bands and liquidity pools denominated in USDC, conditional token pricing will reflect the probability distribution traders assign to each range. Resolution hinges entirely on Observatory data publication; no alternative sources or interpolation methods apply.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 2? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.