Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, Shenzhen will experience late spring weather as it transitions toward the summer monsoon season. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either thin liquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine pricing. Traders are betting on which temperature range—likely spanning 5°C intervals from 25°C upwards—will contain the daily high recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station, the official reference point. Resolution hinges on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location and date, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC on 31 May.

Shenzhen's May climate patterns show consistent warming into late spring. Historical data from prior years indicates daily highs typically range between 28–34°C during this period, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no active positions or a market awaiting liquidity injection; comparable weather markets on Polymarket usually see meaningful volume only within 7–10 days of settlement. Traders should monitor whether positions accumulate as May approaches, signalling genuine price discovery.

The key variable is whether an atypical weather system—tropical cyclone activity, unusual high-pressure systems, or monsoon onset timing—alters Shenzhen's typical late-May range. China's meteorological forecasts, released monthly by the China Meteorological Administration, provide early signals for seasonal anomalies. Conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions remain liquid only if sufficient USDC depth exists; thin markets may face slippage when settling. The airport station's elevation and coastal location make it representative of urban Shenzhen conditions, though inland areas may diverge slightly.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.