Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range resolves YES on Polymarket. The contract currently trades at 0% across all temperature brackets, reflecting the market's inability to price an event nearly eighteen months away with meaningful conviction. USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once Wunderground publishes the station's daily maximum, making this a straightforward data-dependent resolution with minimal ambiguity around the source.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable year-to-year variation. The station has recorded highs ranging from 16°C in cooler years to 31°C during warmer springs, with a thirty-year average around 21–23°C for late May. The 2003 European heatwave saw exceptional May temperatures across northern France, whilst recent years (2021–2024) have produced more moderate late-spring conditions. This historical spread explains why the market currently shows zero probability—traders lack sufficient information to anchor expectations, and the event remains too distant for seasonal forecasting models to carry meaningful predictive weight.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European climate patterns through winter 2025–26, particularly Atlantic oscillation indices and spring weather forecasts released from February onwards. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue three-month outlooks by April that could shift market pricing. Any significant warming or cooling signals in early 2026 would likely trigger conditional token repositioning, though the 0% current price suggests most traders are simply avoiding the contract until more actionable information emerges closer to settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.