Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Weather Underground, which aggregates hourly readings throughout the day to determine the daily maximum. Polymarket currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% YES, indicating either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue, since at least one range must resolve affirmatively once the day concludes and data becomes available.

Beijing's June climate sits firmly in early summer, with historical highs typically ranging between 28°C and 35°C during this period. The past decade shows considerable variability: June 2015 recorded a peak of 37.6°C, whilst June 2019 peaked at 31.1°C. The airport station, located in Chaoyang District, tends to register slightly cooler readings than central urban areas due to its position on the city's outskirts. Understanding this baseline matters because traders must assess whether 2026 will track towards the warmer or cooler end of the observed range.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include atmospheric pressure systems and monsoon activity across northern China. The East Asian summer monsoon typically intensifies in mid-June, potentially bringing cloud cover and precipitation that would suppress temperatures. Conversely, high-pressure ridges from the Tibetan plateau can drive extreme heat. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 16 June, though these carry inherent uncertainty beyond a week out. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, meaning final confirmation arrives after the day's peak heating period concludes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.