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Iran leader end of 2026?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Iran leader end of 2026?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Polymarket Legit?.

2% YES 98% NO Volume: $16.3M Liquidity: $1.7M Closes: 31 Dec 2026
Trade on Polymarket Legit? →
Iran leader end of 2026?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket Legit? Pick
polygram.ink
 2% 98% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on Polymarket Legit? →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 2% 98% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on Polymarket Legit? →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on Polymarket Legit? →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on Polymarket Legit? →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on Polymarket Legit? →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket Legit?.

Active sub-markets

No Head of State2% YES98% NO
Muhammad Mirbaqiri0% YES100% NO
Sadegh Larijani0% YES100% NO
Mojtaba Khamenei84% YES16% NO
Hassan Khomeini0% YES100% NO
Reza Pahlavi4% YES96% NO

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, iran leader end of 2026? stands at 2% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Fo…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??
Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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