World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is already underway, and the on-chain contract for missed penalties is pricing a rare outcome: a 4% chance that the tournament will see two or more penalties missed or saved during regular, stoppage, or extra time. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades in USDC on Polygon, with settlement locked to 20 July 2026. The market excludes shootouts, counting only spot-kicks that fail to become goals.

Historically, missed penalties in World Cup regular time are scarce. Roberto Baggio’s 1994 final miss is iconic, but overall, only two individuals have missed two penalties in non-shootout World Cup matches (Asamoah Gyan in 2006 and 2010)[6]. The 2026 tournament has already produced its first official penalty, scored by Switzerland’s Breel Embolo[2], and Messi and Kane now share the record for most penalties taken in World Cup history, with six each[5]. This low baseline supports the 4% probability.

Traders should monitor upcoming match schedules, referee appointments, and injury updates for key strikers, as these directly affect penalty frequency. Recent coverage from beIN Sports notes Messi and Kane’s equalised record, underscoring how elite players dominate spot-kick opportunities[5]. Any disruption to top attackers—such as suspensions or fatigue—could reduce penalty volume, further lowering the chance of two misses. Watch for official FIFA announcements on match timings and referee assignments, as these are the primary catalysts for market movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.