Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature for that calendar day, measured in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, reflecting the distance of the event and the inherent uncertainty in seasonal forecasting. Polymarket prices this contract in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling to whichever temperature range captures the actual high recorded at the Wellington Airport weather station. The settlement source is fixed to Wunderground's historical data for that specific station, eliminating ambiguity around measurement location or methodology.

Wellington's May temperatures typically range between 8–15°C, with the median high around 12°C. Historical records show May extremes rarely exceed 18°C; the highest May temperature on record at Wellington Airport is 21.7°C, set in 1945. Most years see daily highs cluster in the 10–14°C band during late May, as the Southern Hemisphere approaches winter. The current zero-probability pricing suggests traders are either absent from this contract or treating it as a placeholder until closer to settlement, given the 18-month lead time.

New Zealand's meteorological forecasting becomes more reliable within 10–14 days of an event. Traders monitoring this market should watch for any significant climate pattern shifts—particularly the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea—which influence Wellington's late-autumn weather. The MetService publishes seasonal outlooks quarterly; their next update will provide the first substantive directional signal for May 2026 conditions, though point forecasts remain unreliable at this distance.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.