Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 26 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this on-chain contract, with the current market pricing the YES option at 0%. Traders on Polymarket are viewing this as a near-certain NO, having allocated $157,997 in USDC volume across conditional tokens on the Polygon network, yet the probability of exceeding the implied threshold remains negligible. The market opened on 24 June and settles at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, relying on Wunderground data for the final resolution.

Historical June climatology for Wellington New Zealand shows daily highs typically falling between 13°C and 14°C, rarely exceeding 16°C or dropping below 8°C[3]. While a recent event on 8 June saw temperatures exceed these norms due to mild northerly advection overriding seasonal cooling, such anomalies are transient and inconsistent with the stable southerly patterns that dominate mid-winter[2]. The coldest recorded day in the region was 3.6°C in 2011, yet the average daily high remains well above the 5°C–8°C ranges currently priced in the NO buckets, suggesting the 0% YES probability reflects a realistic assessment of winter stability rather than market error[7].

Traders should monitor the scheduled release of the 26 June temperature data on Wunderground, as the contract cannot resolve until this first data point is published[4]. No major weather announcements are expected, but any sudden shift in wind direction from southerly to northerly could act as a catalyst, though current models indicate persistent seasonal cooling with no forecasted heatwaves. The settlement dependency on a single data point means volatility will be minimal until the official release, and the current 0% YES price aligns with the absence of any forecasted thermal anomalies for this specific date[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.