Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 24 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, yet the contract currently trades with a 0% probability for any "YES" outcome, implying the market expects no temperature to fall within the specified range. On Polymarket, this USDC-denominated contract on the Polygon network uses conditional tokens to price the event, with the leading outcome at 17°C holding 49% probability, followed by 16°C at 39%, suggesting the market anticipates a warm day rather than a resolution failure[8].

Historical data frames this expectation, as June in Wellington typically sees daily highs decreasing from 56°F to 53°F, rarely dropping below 48°F or exceeding 61°F[2]. However, recent records show Wellington has already beaten its maximum June temperature with over 19°C recorded on 1–2 June, indicating a warmer-than-average pattern for the month[4]. This anomaly supports the current pricing, where 14–15°C is the most likely range for the preceding day, 23 June, with 14°C as the frontrunner at 100%[1].

Traders should monitor MetService NZ announcements for any extreme weather alerts, as the record-breaking warmth earlier in June suggests potential volatility[6]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground data for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, and any gaps in reporting could invalidate the outcome. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 24 June, the market remains sensitive to real-time temperature updates that could shift probabilities from the current 17°C lead[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.