Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sitting at 0%. Today, Polymarket prices this contract on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect a near-zero chance of the temperature exceeding the threshold implied by the "YES" bet, despite recent heatwaves in the region. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground, specifically the peak temperature for all times on that day at the Pearson station.

Historical data frames how traders should interpret this 0% probability. On 25 June 2025, Pearson recorded its highest low temperature since 1938 at 22.9°C, yet the absolute high remained below extreme thresholds [9]. While a record-breaking 35.8°C was hit at Pearson on a Monday in late June of a prior year, such extremes are rare anomalies rather than typical June patterns [4][10]. Average June highs at Pearson range from 68°F to 83°F (approximately 20°C to 28°C), suggesting that temperatures significantly above 30°C are statistically unlikely for this specific date [8].

Traders should monitor Environment Canada’s heat advisories and daily weather schedules for the Greater Toronto Area, as sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure or thunderstorm risks could alter temperature trajectories [4]. Current forecasts for 25 June indicate a risk of thunderstorms with a high of 25°C and a low of 16°C, which may suppress peak temperatures [2][3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00:00Z on 25 June 2026, so any late-morning heat spikes or cloud cover changes before that time will be critical for the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.