Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 26 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Haneda Airport Station. The settlement mechanism resolves via Wunderground's historical data feed, converting the recorded high into Celsius and matching it against predefined ranges. On Polymarket, this contract currently prices at 0% across all temperature brackets, a technical artefact reflecting minimal trading volume rather than genuine certainty about the outcome. USDC deposits on Polygon fund the conditional token pairs, with resolution triggering an automatic payout once Wunderground finalises its daily maximum.

Late May in Tokyo typically sees highs between 24–28°C as the city transitions toward early summer. Historical data from the past decade shows 26 May temperatures clustering around 25–27°C, with occasional outliers reaching 29°C during warmer years. The 0% crowd probability suggests either illiquidity or a market awaiting initial price discovery; comparable weather markets on Polymarket usually show meaningful spreads once trading begins, with seasonal norms anchoring initial positions before live forecasts tighten ranges.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña updates affecting Pacific weather patterns through spring 2026. Real-time forecast models from mid-May will provide sharper signals than historical averages. Haneda's urban heat island effect—the airport sits within Tokyo's metropolitan zone—typically elevates readings 1–2°C above surrounding rural areas, a structural factor worth accounting for when evaluating bracket probabilities.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.