Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the crowd’s belief that the temperature will not fall within the specific range offered. This pricing sits on the Polygon blockchain, where USDC funds conditional tokens that resolve automatically once Wunderground publishes the first data point for the date.

Historical precedents frame how to read this near-zero probability. In July 2025, Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City, Hyogo Prefecture, while Haneda’s July average high is 87°F (roughly 30.6°C) [6][5]. Previous Polymarket contracts for Tokyo high temperatures in early July 2026 similarly showed tight ranges, with most outcomes clustering around 28–32°C, suggesting the current range may be set too low to capture typical summer peaks [2].

Traders should monitor the daily weather forecast for Haneda released by AccuWeather, which projects July 2026 highs between 79°F and 89°F (26.1–31.7°C) [5]. The key catalyst is the official Wunderground data release at 12:00 UTC on 6 July, which will determine settlement. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system could push temperatures above the range, a dependency tracked closely by on-chain liquidity providers [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.