Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 5 July 2026 will settle this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily data for the RJTT station. Despite a crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome on a specific range, the market currently prices the frontrunner at 27°C with 54% confidence, followed closely by 26°C at 44%, reflecting trader consensus around a 25–26°C high amid persistent cloud cover and scattered showers forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency [1].

Historical July highs at Haneda typically range between 26°C and 29°C, with the rainy season often suppressing peak temperatures through frequent precipitation and high humidity [9]. Just one day prior, on 4 July, the market assigned 100% probability to a 28°C high, yet actual conditions may vary as cloud dynamics shift [2]. Notably, Tokyo reached 36.8°C on 1 July 2026—the highest ever recorded for that date—suggesting that extreme outliers are possible, though current forecasts lean toward milder, cloud-mediated conditions [6].

Traders should monitor the JMA’s 3-day weather updates issued 3 July, which cite a daily normal maximum of 28.9°C, and watch for real-time adjustments in cloud cover or shower intensity that could alter the day’s peak [10]. Any sudden announcement of reduced precipitation or a break in the cloud layer could push temperatures toward the 27–28°C range, while continued rain would likely cap highs near 25–26°C. On-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens will update odds in real time as traders buy or sell shares, ensuring the market reflects the latest collective view [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.