Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 4 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this on-chain prediction market, which currently prices the 27°C range at 57% probability, while the 28°C and higher brackets sit below 1% each[1]. This market resolves via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settling in USDC once Wunderground publishes the first data point for the day, a mechanic that ties liquidity directly to real-time meteorological verification[1].

Historical July highs at Haneda typically range between 26°C and 30°C, with the 26°C bracket holding a 26% share in today’s pricing, suggesting the market expects a mild but not record-breaking day[1]. Recent extreme heat in Japan, such as the 41.2°C record in Tamba City last month, has not yet translated into elevated probabilities for Haneda, indicating traders view local airport conditions as buffered from regional spikes[9].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecast updates and any flight delay advisories for Haneda, as weather-induced disruptions often correlate with temperature anomalies[8]. The July 2026 monthly forecast for Haneda predicts daily highs between 76°F and 91°F (24°C–33°C), providing a baseline against which to assess intraday deviations[4]. No major heatwave announcements have been issued for the Tokyo region as of 4 July, keeping the 27°C outcome the frontrunner[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.