Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either minimal trader participation or a technical settlement lag. Polymarket prices this contract in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens minting and burning as traders position themselves across the temperature bands. The settlement hinges on historical data from Wunderground, which archives daily highs from the airport's official weather station—the standard reference point for Taipei's meteorological conditions.

Late May in Taipei typically sees temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during early summer heat waves. Historical data from May 2023 and 2024 recorded highs of 31–32°C on comparable dates, whilst May 2022 saw a peak of 34°C mid-month. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine uncertainty about whether measurable temperature will occur; traders may be waiting for more granular range definitions or higher liquidity before committing capital.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for early-season heat waves or tropical systems that could suppress temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on real-time weather data and intraday temperature trends at Songshan Airport.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.