Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Wunderground's archive for that specific date, with the market resolving once the daily maximum is finalised. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0%, reflecting either incomplete market formation or an expectation that the contract will resolve to an outcome not yet listed as an option.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima during late May. Historical records from Changi Airport show temperatures typically peak between 31°C and 34°C during this period, with extreme outliers rare. The 0% pricing across all ranges suggests traders have not yet engaged substantively with this contract, or that the available outcome brackets may not align with the meteorological baseline. Comparable May dates from prior years establish a narrow band of likely outcomes, making the current market state an artefact of low liquidity rather than genuine disagreement about the underlying weather event.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May, giving traders until that point to position before Wunderground's historical data becomes final. Traders should monitor Singapore's monsoon patterns in the weeks preceding the date, as the transition between the southwest and northeast monsoons can introduce volatility. Any unusual atmospheric pressure systems or regional weather alerts from the Meteorological Service Singapore would serve as catalysts for repricing, though the fundamental climatology of late May remains well-established.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.