Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

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Market context

Singapore's daily high temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once the morning's peak temperature becomes apparent. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's maximum.

Singapore sits near the equator with minimal seasonal variation; May falls within the southwest monsoon season, when afternoon highs typically cluster between 31–34°C. Historical data from the past five years shows 25 May temperatures ranging from 32.1°C to 34.8°C, with the 32–34°C band appearing most frequently. The 0% pricing across all ranges likely reflects thin order books rather than consensus that no temperature will be recorded—a common artefact in early-stage weather markets where conditional token mechanics on Polygon require sufficient USDC depth to function smoothly.

Traders should monitor the Meteorological Department of Singapore's forecasts as May approaches, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual atmospheric conditions that could push readings above the historical 35°C threshold. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data feed for Changi, which occasionally experiences minor delays or corrections after initial publication. Any technical issues with the weather station or data provider could affect resolution timing, though such disruptions are rare for Singapore's primary aviation weather hub.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.