Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, which currently prices the “YES” option at 0%. On Polymarket, the contract heavily favours 32°C (44.5%) or 31°C (31.5%), reflecting climatological norms and the ongoing Southwest Monsoon[1]. Historical data from 1991 to 2020 shows July’s average high in Singapore is 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C[2]. Even during extreme events, such as the 40-year record of 37°C hit in Ang Mo Kio last year, Changi Airport has not registered such highs, suggesting the 0% YES probability aligns with station-specific climate behaviour[9].

Traders should monitor the Southwest Monsoon’s intensity and any official announcements from the Meteorological Service Singapore regarding heat advisories or anomalous weather patterns. The monsoon typically brings moderate rainfall and stabilises temperatures, but a sudden shift could elevate daytime highs beyond the 32°C threshold[1]. Recent coverage in The Straits Times highlights how urban heat pockets can reach record levels, yet Changi’s coastal location buffers it from such extremes[9]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, ensure transparent settlement once Wunderground publishes the official 1 July reading[6]. No moralising is needed; the facts indicate the market’s pricing is grounded in reliable historical patterns.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.