Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station and settled against historical data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature bands, reflecting either minimal trading activity or a technical settlement state. On Polymarket, this contract trades as conditional tokens on Polygon; positions are denominated in USDC and resolve to the specific range bracket containing that day's high.

May represents late spring in Shenzhen, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C. Historical data from the past five years shows 25 May temperatures clustering around 29–31°C, with occasional outliers reaching 33°C during stronger subtropical high-pressure systems. The airport station's coastal location moderates extremes compared to inland urban areas. A 0% crowd probability across all ranges suggests the market may not yet have attracted sufficient liquidity for meaningful price discovery, or traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts closer to the settlement date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the East Asian weather pattern development in early May 2026, particularly the positioning of the Pacific subtropical high and any tropical systems forming in the South China Sea. China's meteorological authority typically issues 10-day forecasts by mid-May that would inform temperature expectations. Unusual warming events or monsoon onset timing could shift outcomes beyond the historical 28–32°C band, though such deviations remain statistically uncommon for this specific date and location.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.